Report on expected developments
The following describes the expected development of the Porsche AG Group taking into account the conditions in which it does business. In line with the group’s internal management system, the forecast period covers one year and contains all information available at the time of preparing the financial statements that could have a significant impact on the business development of the Porsche AG Group. Risks and opportunities that could give rise to a deviation from the forecast development are set out separately in the → Report on risks and opportunities. The report on expected developments contains forward-looking statements based on the estimates and expectations of the Porsche AG Group. Actual business performance may deviate, both positively and negatively, as a result of unpredictable events, including changes in the political and economic framework.
The assumptions used in preparing this forecast report are based, inter alia, on current estimates by external institutions; these include economic research institutes, banks, multinational organizations and consultancy firms.
Macroeconomic and sector-specific outlook
Development of global economy
The Porsche AG Group expects growth in global economic output to lose some of its momentum in 2025 compared to the reporting year. Falling inflation in major economic regions and the resulting easing of monetary policy measures taken by central banks are expected to have a positive impact on private demand. The Porsche AG Group assumes that growth prospects will continue to be impacted by increasing fragmentation of the global economy and protectionist tendencies and by turbulence on the financial markets. Negative effects are also expected from ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflicts as well as uncertainties related to the political direction of the USA.
Germany
For Germany, the Porsche AG Group assumes that gross domestic product (GDP) will develop positively in 2025, albeit with little momentum. The annual average inflation rate should fall slightly, while the situation on the labor market is likely to deteriorate.
Europe
Economic growth in Western Europe in 2025 is expected to be similar to the reporting year and inflation is expected to fall on average. Interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank are intended to support the economic situation in the eurozone. The Porsche AG Group anticipates a slightly higher growth rate for Central Europe with persistently high but less dynamic price increases. A slower pace of economic growth is expected in Eastern Europe.
North America excl. Mexico
According to estimates by the Porsche AG Group, economic growth in the USA will continue to be robust, albeit weaker than in the fiscal year 2024 – with a corresponding impact on the labor market. Despite an expected slight increase in the inflation rate, the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut key interest rates further. Economic growth in Canada is expected to be slightly higher than in the reporting year.
China incl. Hong Kong
For China, the Porsche AG Group expects the economy to grow at a relatively high level in 2025, albeit at a lower rate than in the reporting year.
Market development for the automotive segment
For the automotive industry, whose development is closely tied to global economic developments, the Porsche AG Group expects competition to become even keener in 2025. The forecast for 2025 is based on the assumption that although development in the passenger car markets in the individual regions will be mixed, it will be positive for the most part. The overall global sales volume of new vehicles is expected to be slightly higher than in the reporting year. Estimates are based on the assumption that the availability of essential parts, in particular semiconductors and commodities, will not worsen as a result of the crisis and that energy supplies and the stable development of material and energy prices – at a high level – will be ensured.
Germany
In the German passenger car market, the volume of new registrations in 2025 is expected to be up slightly on the level of the reporting year 2024.
Europe without Germany
For the Western European markets (excluding Germany), a moderately higher volume of new passenger car registrations is expected for 2025 on average compared to the reporting year. Sales of passenger cars are expected to significantly exceed the prior-year figures in markets in Central and Eastern Europe.
North America excl. Mexico
For the region North America excl. Mexico, the volume of new passenger car registrations in 2025 is expected to be on a par with the reporting year figure.
China incl. Hong Kong
For the passenger market in China incl. Hong Kong, the Porsche AG Group anticipates that the new registrations will be at the level of the prior year.
Market development for the financial services segment
Automotive-related financial services are again expected to be of great importance for global automotive sales in the fiscal year 2025.
Forecast assumptions
The Porsche AG Group bases its forecast for the fiscal year 2025 on the current framework conditions with global conflicts and tensions.
In its forecast, the Porsche AG Group also expects market conditions to remain highly challenging and competition in China to remain intense. It is also expected that geopolitical uncertainties will continue to persist with the new US administration. In its current forecast for 2025, the Porsche AG Group has not taken into account the current framework conditions and therefore no further import restrictions and tariffs.
The forecast for the fiscal year 2025, based on the assumption that the situation in the supply chains will be challenging and that additional costs in the supplier area are to be expected due to individual delivery delays, cancellations, fluctuations in production volumes and possible insolvencies.
In addition to the external factors described above, the Porsche AG Group also expects vehicle sales to be below the level of the reporting year due to the slower transition to electromobility and, as a result of the regulatory environment, the partially incomplete product range for individual model series and in individual regions in 2025.
Against the backdrop of the changed and challenging market environment, extensive measures are planned to strengthen the company’s earnings power in the short and medium term. These measures include the expansion of the product portfolio to include additional models with combustion engines or plug-in hybrids, the expansion of special and exclusive manufacturing and adjustments to the company organization. Expenditure, particularly on vehicle development and the battery activities of the group’s own companies, will lead to significant additional costs. The total impact on the operating profit and the automotive net cash flow is expected to amount to up to approximately €0.8 billion as a result of the above measures.
The forecast for 2025 also assumes that, as a result of the high level of investment in recent years, total amortization of intangible assets and depreciation of property, plant and equipment will continue to increase.
Forecast of the most important key performance indicators
For the fiscal year 2025, based on the aforementioned assumptions, the Porsche AG Group expects a significantly lower return on sales of between 10% and 12%. This forecast is based on estimated sales revenue in a range of €39 billion to €40 billion.
Automotive net cash flow margin is also expected to be lower compared to the reporting year at between 7% and 9%.
The Porsche AG Group plans to achieve an automotive EBITDA margin of between 19% and 21%, which is also lower than the reporting year.
In its sales revenue forecast for 2025, the company expects purely battery-powered electric vehicles (automotive BEV share) to account for between 20% and 22%.
Overall statement on anticipated development
In its planning for 2025, the Porsche AG Group assumes slightly weaker global economic growth and a slight average increase in global demand for passenger cars compared to the reporting year. However, there are uncertainties in this regard, particularly due to the global geopolitical environment.
Difficult market conditions due to protectionist tendencies and intensified competition in the important markets of the USA and China, coupled with a continuing high level of costs, amortization and depreciation, will make the 2025 fiscal year a challenging one for the Porsche AG Group, in which high one-off burdens are also expected as a result of additional planned measures. At the same time, the Porsche AG Group expects these activities to strengthen its earnings power in the short and medium term. Furthermore, the Porsche AG Group believes it is well positioned to exploit market potential with its existing product range – in line with demand in individual regions – and to further strengthen the Porsche brand worldwide.
