Report on expected developments
The following describes the expected development of the Porsche AG Group taking into account the conditions in which it does business. In line with the group’s internal management system, the forecast period covers one year and contains all information available at the time of preparing the financial statements that could have a significant impact on the business development of the Porsche AG Group. Risks and opportunities that could give rise to a deviation from the forecast development are set out separately in the Report on risks and opportunities. The report on expected developments contains forward-looking statements based on the estimates and expectations of the Porsche AG Group. Actual business performance may deviate, both positively and negatively, as a result of unpredictable events, including changes in the political and economic framework.
The assumptions used in preparing this forecast report are based, inter alia, on current estimates by external institutions; these include economic research institutes, banks, international organizations and consultancy firms.
Macroeconomic and sector-specific outlook
Development of global economy
The Porsche AG Group expects growth in global economic output to show momentum in 2026 similar to that seen in the reporting year. Falling inflation in major economic regions and the resulting gradual easing of monetary policy measures taken by central banks are expected to have a positive impact on private demand. The Porsche AG Group assumes that growth prospects will continue to be impacted by increasing fragmentation of the global economy and protectionist tendencies and by turbulence on the financial, energy and commodity markets. Negative effects are also expected from ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the tense situation in the Middle East, increasing uncertainties in connection with the orientation of the US economic policy and the global increase in geoeconomic measures.
Germany
For Germany, the Porsche AG Group assumes that gross domestic product (GDP) will develop positively in 2026 with a somewhat higher growth rate compared to the reporting year. The annual average inflation rate is expected to fall slightly, while the labor market situation is likely to improve only marginally.
Europe
Economic growth in Western Europe is expected to be somewhat lower in 2026 than in the reporting year, with inflation continuing to fall on average and no additional key interest rate cuts. The Porsche AG Group anticipates a slightly higher growth rate for Central Europe with persistently high but less dynamic price increases. The economic output of Eastern Europe is expected to grow at a similar rate to the reporting year.
North America excl. Mexico
The Porsche AG Group believes that economic growth in the USA will remain stable. Inflation will be at a rate similar to that in the reporting year. Further key interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are expected. Economic growth in Canada is expected to be slightly lower than in the reporting year.
China incl. Hong Kong
For China, the Porsche AG Group expects the economy to grow at a relatively high level in 2026, albeit at a somewhat lower rate than in the reporting year.
Development of the automotive markets
For the automotive industry, whose development is closely tied to global economic developments, the Porsche AG Group expects competition to become even keener in 2026. The forecast for 2026 is based on the assumption that although development in the passenger car markets in the individual regions will be mixed, it will be positive for the most part. The overall global sales volume of new vehicles is expected to be on a par with the reporting year. Estimates are based on the assumption that the availability of essential parts, in particular semiconductors and commodities, will not worsen as a result of the crisis and that energy supplies will be ensured, despite geopolitical tensions, and inflation will stabilize.
Germany
In the German passenger car market, the volume of new registrations in 2026 is expected to be on a par with the reporting year 2025.
Europe without Germany
For the Western European markets (excluding Germany), a comparable volume of new passenger car registrations is expected for 2026 on average compared to the reporting year. Sales of passenger cars are expected to significantly exceed the prior-year figures in markets in Central and Eastern Europe, subject to the further development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
North America excl. Mexico
For the region North America excl. Mexico, the volume of new passenger car registrations in 2026 is expected to be slightly below the reporting year figure.
China incl. Hong Kong
For the passenger market in China incl. Hong Kong, the Porsche AG Group anticipates that the new registrations will be at the level of the prior year.
Forecast assumptions
The Porsche AG Group bases its forecast for the fiscal year 2026 on the framework conditions with global conflicts and tensions as seen at the end of the reporting year.
In addition to the general conditions described above, the Porsche AG Group’s forecast assumes that market conditions will remain extremely challenging, particularly in the luxury segment, and that competition will be fierce, especially for all-electric models in China. It is also expected that geopolitical uncertainties, also related to the political position of the USA, will continue to persist. In its forecast for 2026, the Porsche AG Group has taken into account the current framework conditions in place as of the time of reporting with import restrictions, tariffs and taxes.
It is also assumed that the development of exchange rates and the regulatory requirements regarding the limits for CO₂ fleet emissions will continue to impact the Porsche AG Group’s forecast in 2026.
In addition to the external factors described above, the Porsche AG Group continues to anticipate challenges for sales development due to the delayed transition to electromobility. In addition, a limited product range in certain model series and regions due to life cycle factors is having a negative impact on sales development. As a result of these factors, the Porsche AG Group expects the development of vehicle sales in the group to be below the level of the reporting year.
The strategic realignment initiated in the reporting year against the backdrop of the changed and challenging market environment to strengthen earnings power in the short and medium term will continue in the fiscal year 2026 and is reflected accordingly in the forecast. As a result, the Porsche AG Group’s forecast as of the time of reporting also assumes further, albeit lower compared to the reporting year, expenses and cash outflows in relation to further developments to the future product range, focus on the core business, ensuring quality-oriented product launches, changes in the corporate organization and battery activities.
The forecast for the fiscal year 2026, based on the assumption that the situation in the supply chains will be challenging and that additional costs in the supplier area are to be expected due to individual delivery delays, cancellations, fluctuations in production volumes and possible insolvencies.
The forecast for 2026 also assumes that, as a result of the high level of investment in recent years, total amortization of intangible assets and depreciation of property, plant and equipment will continue to increase. The overall level of investment is also expected to be higher than in the reporting year.
Forecast of the most important key performance indicators
For the fiscal year 2026, based on the aforementioned assumptions, the Porsche AG Group expects a higher return on sales of between 5.5% and 7.5%. This forecast is based on estimated sales revenue in a range of €35 billion to €36 billion.
Automotive net cash flow margin is expected to develop similarly compared to the reporting year, with values between 3% and 5%.
The Porsche AG Group plans to achieve an automotive EBITDA margin of between 15% and 17%, which is higher than the reporting year.
In its sales revenue forecast for 2026, the company expects purely battery-powered electric vehicles (automotive BEV share) to account for between 24% and 26%.
Overall statement on anticipated development
In its planning for 2026, the Porsche AG Group assumes global economic growth and global demand for passenger cars on a par with the reporting year. However, there are uncertainties in this regard, particularly due to the global geopolitical environment.
Difficult market conditions and a volatile environment, particularly in the important markets of the USA and China, coupled with a continuing high level of costs, amortization and depreciation, will make the fiscal year 2026 a challenging one for the Porsche AG Group. At the same time, thanks to its robust financial strength and the measures introduced to strengthen its earnings power in the short and medium term, the Porsche AG Group considers itself to be in a sustainably sound position to react flexibly to changing conditions and to further strengthen its market position.
