Possibility of lower growth
In our plans we have allowed for a slight slowdown in growth in the world economy in 2018. Protectionist tendencies, volatility in the financial markets and structural deficits in some countries are all potential sources of risk, while geopolitical tensions and conflicts will further impact the prospects for growth. We therefore anticipate that both developed economies and emerging markets will experience somewhat weaker levels of growth than in 2017. We expect the highest growth rates to be recorded in the emerging national economies of Asia.
Our forecasts indicate that economic growth will slow down in western Europe in 2018, compared with the year under review. The question of how to resolve structural problems, not to mention the uncertain outcome and impact of Brexit negotiations, will present major challenges. In Germany we expect GDP growth in 2018 to be lower than in the reporting year. The labour market looks set to remain stable, continuing to support private consumption. We anticipate a continued improvement in the economic situation in the US in 2018, and we expect the US Federal Reserve to announce further interest rate hikes over the course of the year. In Brazil, our forecasts show the economy should stabilise further in 2018, with somewhat higher growth than in the year under review. The Chinese economy will continue to grow at a relatively high level in the coming year, although our plans anticipate that this growth will be less dynamic than in previous years.
Mixed fortunes on the automobile markets
We are expecting to see differences in how the world’s regional markets for passenger vehicles perform in 2018. Our plans for western Europe assume that market volume in 2018 will be slightly down on the level achieved in the year under review. Following a positive performance in recent years we expect the German passenger car market to stabilise at last year’s level in 2018. Demand for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles up to 6.35 tonnes will fall slightly in the US and in North America as a whole according to our forecasts. However, demand for models in the SUV and pick-up segments can be expected to remain high. In the largest South American market, Brazil, forecasts point to a significant increase in volumes in 2018 following the already strong performance of the past year. The passenger car markets of the Asia-Pacific region will continue to grow in 2018, but, we predict, at a weaker rate. Demand in China will increase further in line with the rising demand for individual mobility. However, we anticipate a slight weakening in growth rates compared with the previous year. Entry-level SUV models in particular are expected to remain very popular.
In 2018 Porsche AG expects the high levels of deliveries and revenue to stabilise compared with the 2017 financial year. This expectation is based on Porsche’s attractive product range, in particular the new-generation Cayenne, which will be introduced to all markets around the world in 2018, and the Panamera. Despite the very high investment in vehicle projects and innovative technologies, as well as in the expansion and renovation of sites, measures are in place to ensure that Porsche AG’s lofty revenue requirements will continue to be met. These measures comprise making continual improvements to productivity, enforcing strict cost management and tapping new revenue sources from innovative future technologies.